To subscribe to our emailers, all you have to do is fill in these basic details and click the Submit button. You will start receiving regular mails from Wealth Forum updating you on fresh content on our site.
Rural consumption is gradually recovering from multiple headwinds from covid to poor rainfall to lower wage growth in Government jobs to impact of formalization on small rural businesses. Expect gradual recovery to continue into FY25 – don’t expect any surge in rural demand.
Urban consumption is clearly a K shaped growth story with affluent segment’s discretionary consumption growing strongly while lower income segment’s demand remains muted. Leveraged consumption(buy-now-pay-later) may see some slowdown after RBI’s measures to curb rapid growth of unsecured loans.
Growth in India is currently being led by infrastructure build-out which will in turn spur private sector capex, both of which will create more jobs and thus positively impact consumption growth.
RBI’s projections of 6.5% GDP growth seem realistic. Key risk to our growth story is uncertainty around global growth outlook and its impact on us.
Rise in unsecured personal loans is indeed dangerous and heartening that RBI stepped in to correct. Manufacturing has to first take off to increase surplus income and only then will consumption also increase steadily and sustainably.
