Vikas has given a clear call to go long duration and has positioned his gilt fund to capture a bull run he sees playing out over the next 6-9 months.
He expects a rate cut cycle to begin in 2HY24 and sees 50bps or potentially more of drop in long bond yields over the next 6-9 months as markets usually front run a rate cut cycle, with the long end dropping first and shorter end dropping closer to the actual cuts.
Invesco India Gilt Fund is currently running a duration of10 years. Mathematically, if you get a 50 bps fall in yield on a 10 year duration portfolio, you could see a capital gain of 5% and another 7% on accrual, netting you 12% for the year. If the fall happens within 6-9 months, your capital appreciation is higher on an annualized basis.
With supply of bonds likely to remain steady as India continues down the path of fiscal prudence and more domestic long only buyers in the form of insurance and pension funds coming in, demand-supply situation is comfortable.
Demand will get further augmented as international flows come in due to inclusion in JPM and potentially other global bond indices –these flows typically come into longer duration g-secs.
Potential for healthy double digit gains over the next 6-9months makes long duration bonds an attractive bull market to participate in tactically over the next few months.