Bandhan MF’s new Business Cycles Fund will track 40+ macro indicators to spot sector opportunities to invest into. The emphasis will be on leading indicators as well as a close watch on market momentum within sectors to take nimble sector level calls.
These top-down calls will also be supplemented by individual bottom-up picks which Vishal believes can do well, irrespective of an overall sector view.
Expect high active share in this portfolio, but do not expect extreme sector calls like zero positions in index heavyweight sectors.
The fund can also hold upto 15% cash position if the situation warrants. Vishal expects the initial portfolio to have a high single digit cash level.
Vishal is not too optimistic on banks and capital market plays as competitive intensity is eating into margins. In the BFSI space he prefers specialist NBFCs in infra lending and housing finance.
He believes a mild recession that can follow the forthcoming rate cut cycle in the US may actually be good news for Indian IT companies as US based clients will need to focus more on outsourcing to control costs.
Vishal expects to be overweight industrials and consumer discretionary, somewhat underweight financials – though it will still perhaps be the largest component, and is likely to be meaningfully underweight materials (cement/metals), energy and consumer staples.